歷史重複之二 ~ 原載於 9 Jun 2008 Yahoo Blog HK

以下是wits 其中一個成員對歷史重複之演繹 , 各位可作參考 , 但並不表示我們讚同其說法 , 但個中亦有其理由 , anyway 欣賞一下先啦 :  若果我提供太多野俾你地可能會令你地消化不良 , 一步一步來啦......


Just a note on how WD Gann actually did his yearly forecast.
He did not do a lot of caculations or other fancy astrological stuff.  All he did was go back 20 years and look at what the market did and then overlay this on the current price to come up with a forecast and turning points.

Just remember he was doing all this before computers and all the nice fancy stuff we have.

But as a practical matter it worked pretty good.  So don't try to figure out Gann's forecast with modern tools.  Just go back to market data 20 yrs past and overlay it and you will get his prediction.  It even works pretty good still. 

If you are an astrology trader you will understand why using a 20 yr cycle will pick up most the same major astro events again and again. 


Another thought is to look at the 20 to 30 year weather cycle.  You can find a lot about it in the Old Farmers Almanac continuiously published since 1792 and very accuate too.  If you trade commodites this is all important. 

The weather cycle is driven by the sun spot cycle which causes a change in the energy from the Sun and how much food is produced.


Another cycle to look at is Benner's cycles which are based on Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune with a Fibonicci relationship.  It still works pretty good.  These are cycles of 16 to 18 yrs.


So Mr. Gann just laying over what happend 20 yrs ago in the market was able to come up with a pretty good projections for his time.


Yam