Enquiry from old member ~ learning process sharing

 

 

 

 

 

Enquiry from our member :

 

 

 

Hi Yam sir,

Long time haven't sent you any updates, How are you doing?

I have been researching Nikkei 225 and sometimes ES now. But trading was not very successful as Nikkei was so fluctuate and make me stop loss many times for losing faith in my research although the main direction was correct from the graph...

Please see attached, the big triangle has been broken in Nov 2013 and up to 0.618 of the triangle range and started to drop back into the pattern, 5 wave structure was observed and a retest of trendline I suggest it is the wave 2 of the larger pattern down (but I put too early at 0.382 rebounce and eventually it went up to 0.618... but at 0.382 I had a T date there and the trendline cross with the date and it really went down 1 day after... )

According to my research, today's it has reached 0.382 of the up wave 2, down trend will be resumed on around 25 Mar.

Please feel free to comment. I would also like to raise, how can I know if the price level is a reversal or it will be broken and breakout at the date? Nikkei although having a quite regular and respect to ratio and time itself, it has the tendency to false break so many times before moving, as it is 10 points per tick, it is easy to penetrate through and having a long tail... which is hard to set the stop. Please advice.

 

Regards,

XXX

 

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My reply

 

 

 

Hi XXX

First ...never sell at 0.382 level since u only having a parity of 1:2 ....loss 2 look for 1 ....whether it will really go to 0.618  u will never know .....connie brown will only open trade on either 50% or 61.8% " ONLY " , this is risk control , so that loss to win ratio / parity would be loss 1 look for 2 .....

For " time "  parity ....also ....a parity of 1 : 2 would be prefered ....that's why u make a mistake on yr trade earlier .....

 

Another mistake made is that it is not a 5 wave pattern ....it's an " abc "  instead , that's why when u put , it rebound so fast ....details see my attachment

 

 

Conclusion would be ......always found out price ratio and time ratio first ....look for parity 1 : 2 ....that's the key factor of starting a new position , wave structure is another core consideration , if the wave didn't finish yet , how can u start position " against " it ? not safe ....right

 

 

Lastly , the coming wave should be a 5 pattern ...since it should be a " 3 - 5 - 5 or 3 - 3 - 5 "  starting from 16000 end dec 2013

 

 

Happy trading ! explore more and u will find more interest in it ....or love it , if u love the market ....market would love u too .....hhehheheh

 

Regds
Yam